The global economy is improving, a leading economist told attendees of EMEAlive 2020, currently underway; it is just not going to feel like things are getting better.
Dr. Neil Blake, Head of Global Forecasting, EMEA Chief Economist, CBRE, said that we are part way through a recovery, although by no means are we all the way there.
Blake presented a series of charts showing COVID cases and related data for European, Asian and North American countries. Notably, China, where the virus originated, is alone among countries showing positive GDP growth from Q4 2019 to Q2 2020.
In fact, most countries may expect a bounce back to pre-COVID economic activity in 2023-2025:
But not everyone is a believer in the so-called V-shaped recovery, according to a survey conducted by Oxford Economics.
What could go wrong? This fall and winter might see a resurgence of the virus. Economic factors include a potential credit crunch, inflation from policy changes and excess growth. And political factors include the U.S. election, U.S. China trade talks, and Brexit.
Commercial real estate, he said, along with central business district services, hospitality, travel and entertainment will be economic laggards; but the tech, pharma and distribution sectors will see growth.